The Industry Today :

Engine production is set to increase significantly.

When Airbus and Boeing announced their respective production rate increases in March, they set the scene for a significant increase in the annual number of large civil jet engine deliveries. In 2013 there could be almost 2,500 engine deliveries, or roughly 26% more than this year.

Airbus was the first to announce a rate change. On March 9 the company said that it would increase the monthly production rate of the A320 Family from the current rate of 34 to 36, starting in December this year. Ten days later, Boeing announced that it would bring forward planned rate increases on both the 777 and 747 programs. Boeing will bring forward the 777 program’s planned rate increase to seven aircraft per month (from five per month) by approximately six months, or from early 2012 to mid-2011. The 747 program’s planned production rate increase to two aircraft per month (from 1.5 per month) will move from mid-2013 to mid-2012. Boeing has also now announced production rate increases for the 737 which is going to increase from the current 31.5 per month to 35 per month in early 2012.

Then, right at the end of July, Airbus made another announcement about A320 production. It would go to 40 per month in early 2012.

On top of these rate increases the industry will also have to cope with the introduction of a number of new programs which will increase the annual number of large commercial jet deliveries over the next few years. This year sees the start of 747-8 and 787-8 deliveries, together with initial deliveries of the A330-200F. Next year will be the first full year of production for each of these three programs. The A350 starts to deliver in 2013 which will provide yet another boost to annual delivery numbers.

What this in turn means is that while 2010 aircraft and engine delivery numbers will be below 2009 levels, from 2011 the rate will increase each year and there could be about 1,200 aircraft deliveries in 2013. That translates into nearly 2,500 engine deliveries. Another aspect to this is that the mix of engine types will soon be very different to the mix seen in the last few years. First deliveries of the GEnx and Trent 1000 start soon and in 2013 the first Trent XWB engines will be delivered.

Will suppliers be able to keep up? Good question. Both the airframe and engine companies are hoping that the steady increase will be manageable. Had the industry been emerging from a deep trough, things might be rather different. It is perhaps too early to speculate on possible engine production numbers in 2014 but chances are that they will be higher than in 2013.

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